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Altman Z-Score for non-manufacturer industrials and emerging market definition

Description

Altman Z-Score (for non-manufacturer industrials and emerging market) is a mathematic (quantitative balance-sheet method) model used to evaluate the company’s probability of bankruptcy within the next two years. This model was created by combining five different financial ratios, calculated by using the accounting data of those companies, that had already gone bankrupt in the past. This model does not calculate the exact probability of a company’s bankruptcy. It is more of a statistics – based model, developed in 1968, but is still one of the most widely used ones. Later this model was adapted to calculate score for non-manufacturing and emerging market companies by changing one element of this model to another, and deleting one financial ratio (sales/assets). Market value of equity was replaced by the book value of equity as shares of private companies is not an object of stock market. Sales to assets ratio was eliminated, since for the non-manufacturing and emerging market companies this ratio is not so important. Data needed to calculate this ratio is collected from the balance sheet, income statement and stock market bulletin and cash flow statement.

Altman Z-score calculations are not recommended for financial companies. This bankruptcy calculation model is important for the company’s investors and creditors (also owners), as it provides information on how close the company is to a possible bankruptcy.

Norms and limitations

The value of Z-score, calculated for non-manufacturer industrials and emerging market, usually has the following intervals:

Value, higher than 2.6, means that the possibility of company’s bankruptcy is very low, so the company is considered safe. This interval is known as the “safe zone”.

Values between 1.1 and 2.6 represent the possibility of the company going bankrupt within the next two years. This interval is known as the “grey zone”.

If the value is below 1.1, it means that the possibility of a company’s bankruptcy is high, so the company is considered unstable and dangerous. This interval is known as the “distress zone”

In general if the value of Altman Z-Score goes down to 2.6 or below, it would be smart to consider paying serious attention to company’s condition.

Formula

Assets (Total assets) - a balance sheet item, representing what a company owns.

Debt (total debt, total liabilities) is calculated by adding together long term debt with short term debt. These two measures can be easily located on the balance sheet.

Net sales (revenues, sales) can be described as sales, deducting returns and discount for customers.

Equity (Shareholders’ equity) shows the equity stake, currently held on company’s balance sheet. In other words, it means total assets minus total liabilities.

Working capital (net working capital, NWC) is calculated by deducting current liabilities (current debts) from current assets.

Retained earnings is a measure that shows a part of net income, which was not paid out to the shareholders as a form of dividends.

Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) equal net income, plus interest expense, plus taxes.